Bloomberg New Energy Finance has released the 2030 Market Outlook. This is a long-term forecast of the status of the global power market up to the year 2030. The report’s findings cover major economic and technological aspects of the power market.
The report has published a graph of the forecast annual, global, gross capacity additions from 2013 to 2030. The graph shows an increase from about 280 GW in 2013 to about 360 GW in 2030. This is an increase of 25-30% in annual gross capacity additions. Fossil fuels provided 64 % of the global installed capacity in 2012. This is forecast to drop to 44 % by 2030. The share of renewable energy (wind, solar, other renewables) was 29 % of global installed capacity in 2012. This is forecast to increase to 49 % by 2030.
The strongest growth in demand is expected to be in developing countries, including China and India. The weakest demand is expected in some European countries, where power demand growth could be negative. The growth in mainland Australia is to be weak and that in Tasmania and New Zealand weaker.
The report is predicting a small-scale solar revolution over the next 16 years, attracting the largest single share of cumulative investment from 2013 to 2026. This is expected to be driven by attractive economics. Utility scale solar is expected to contribute approximately 13 % of new capacity, mainly in developing countries (90%).
In Germany, wind and solar are expected to provide 52 % of generation by 2030. The report notes that this is likely to require additional investment in flexible capacity, to manage variability.
The Asia Pacific region is forecast to be the leading region in the world in terms of renewables and investment. It will add more generating capacity than the rest of the world combined. The renewable capacity will increase by 400 %, with just under half being solar. Two thirds of investment will be in renewables.
In the Asia Pacific region, solar without subsidy is forecast to be competitive with natural gas and coal. Onshore wind is already competitive at good sites. The increased use of solar is expected to be driven by its increasing competitiveness, modularisation and its distributed nature. The share between rooftop and utility solar is expected to be almost equal.
In the Asia Pacific region, new fossil fuel capacity is expected to shift to gas, with high LNG prices limiting a major expansion. Interestingly, more coal fuel capacity is still expected to be installed than gas capacity. The increase in coal fuel capacity is forecast to be the equivalent of one new coal plant every 2 weeks. Over 15 years this totals 390 equivalent new plants.
The gross capacity additions in China will dominate the region with 1,536 GW. India is expected to be approximately half this amount.
The gross capacity additions in Australia is expected to be 36 GW, mostly solar and then equal wind and fossil fuel capacity. The report expects the ongoing uptake in small-scale solar in Australia even beyond 2030.
In Europe, half of the generation will be zero emission, compared with 29 % in 2013. In the USA and Canada, government policies will make it almost impossible to build new coal capacity and more than 100 GW of coal generation is expected to be retired during the next decade.
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